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Brian Powell¹
Andrew Moore ¹, Hernan Arango ², Emanuele Di Lorenzo ³, and Ralph Milliff ⁴

(1) Institute of Marine Sciences, Santa Cruz, USA
(2) Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers - The State University of New Jersey
(3) Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA
(4) Colorado Research Associates (CoRA), Boulder, USA

Main authors appear in bold

The Intra-Americas Sea is an interesting oceanic region comprised of large coastal shelves, sharp slopes into deep basins with complex bathymetry and geometry, narrow island passages. It is a well- constrained region of the North Atlantic with land mass boundaries along the western and northern extents. The Caribbean region is highly dynamic, but is well sampled by a long, overlapping time series of both satellite and in situ physical oceanographic measurements. Using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), we have developed a real-time 4DVAR data assimilation system utilizing both satellite surface observations (GODAE HRSST-PP and AVISO) and in situ ship measurements to generate the best model state for the current day. Utilizing the numerous tangent-linear solutions from the data assimilation system, we generate a set of orthonormal perturbations to apply to the generated initial conditions to generate a two-week ensemble of predictions. This automated assimilative/prediction system is now running in an experimentally operational capability aboard the "Explorer of the Seas" making regular trips across the region. We will be discussing the algorithmic and data challenges to assimilation and prediction in dynamic, coastal regions.

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